Fooled by Randomness
May 9th, 2006 | by A T M |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
I Completely subscribe to this insightful topic on randomness…
Immediately caught my attention when i read these lines
Some excerpts :
“we are more comfortable seeing the world as something structured, ordinary, and comprehensible. Taleb calls this blindness the Platonic fallacy”
“The past is not predictive of the future”
“My basic message is, don’t cross the river if it’s an average of four feet deep.”
“Most pros invest based on what they think is most likely to happen, historical patterns, or their own fundamental analysis. But in doing so, they ignore the possibility that something quite unexpected could occur. The role of the rare event is underestimated”
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